Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
