A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
