Everyday Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average figure of everyday homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that murder numbers could fail to point to better national security.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded over these months is very notable,” the President remarked, noting that in November the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, security analysts urged caution that using murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.