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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.